Important stats from last year:
Packers played 10 Tier One teams, going 6-4.
Packers' average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier one teams: 3.4 points per game
PAckers average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier 2-3 teams: 9.5 points per game
Packers went 8-2 versus tier 2-3 teams (only played one tier 3 team all year
Saints played 4 Tier One teams, going 2-2
Saints average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier one teams: 1.0 points per game
Saints average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier 2-3 teams: 5.2 points per game
Saints went 9-4 versus tier 2-3 teams (only played one tier 3 team all year
New Orleans is probably over-rated, or at least on the low end of the tier I teams.
Point estimate - GB it 2.4 ppg better than NO, stright up
Plus Home Field Advantage - another 3 points.
Grean Bay by 5.5
