Saints at Packers, opening night Kick Off

Important stats from last year:

Packers played 10 Tier One teams, going 6-4.
Packers' average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier one teams: 3.4 points per game
PAckers average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier 2-3 teams: 9.5 points per game
Packers went 8-2 versus tier 2-3 teams (only played one tier 3 team all year


Saints played 4 Tier One teams, going 2-2
Saints average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier one teams: 1.0 points per game
Saints average (adjusted*) margin of victor versus tier 2-3 teams: 5.2 points per game
Saints went 9-4 versus tier 2-3 teams (only played one tier 3 team all year


New Orleans is probably over-rated, or at least on the low end of the tier I teams.

Point estimate - GB it 2.4 ppg better than NO, stright up
Plus Home Field Advantage - another 3 points.

Grean Bay by 5.5

Review of 2010-2011 NFL Season

Tier I Teams: NEP, NYJ, PIT, BAL, CHI, ATL, NOS
84-28 75.0% WINNING PERCENTAGE

Tier III Teams: BUF, CIN, DEN, CAR
14-50 21.875%

TI TII TIII
TI: 75 60 80 100
TII: 50 20 60 75
TIII: 20 0 25 60

VIKINGS SCHEDULE:

@SDC .40
TBB .60
DET .60
@KCC .40
AZC .6
@CHI .20
@GBP .2
CIN .75
@ATL .20
DEN .60
DEN .75
@DET .4
NO .2
@WAS .4
CHI .2 5.5 - 10.

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DETROIT LIONS SCHEDULE / PREDICTIONS

@TBB .40
KCC .6
@MN .4
@DAL .4
CHI .2
SFG .4
ATL .25
@CLE .4
STL .6
@CHI .2
GBP .4
@WAS .4
@CAR .75
SDC .6
GBP .6

6.6 - 9.4

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GB PACKERS SCHEDULE

NOS .25
@CAR 100
@CHI .25
DET .6
@ATL .20
STL .6
@MNV .40
SDSD